Even though the U.S. economic expansion enters its ninth year this month, a recession over our six-to 12-month cyclical horizon looks quite unlikely. Our models put the probability at less than 10%. But recessions are notoriously difficult to forecast. And even if we stay clear of one in the near term, it is more likely than not that the current expansion crosses the great divide sometime over our secular horizon. The global economy is in a similar state, as we highlight in our recently published Secular Outlook, “Pivot Points